German weekend (9/19 -21 /19)

[chriscol]

Only one game for tonight:

Regionalliga Nord:

Essen to beat Dresden @ 1.80

Essen a favourite for promotion had problems in the beginning of season, but is now coming back with two impressive wins in a row (at home over top team wattenscheid and away at St.Pauli).
Team seems to get in groove slowly and should not be stoped tonight by Dresden which is for sure a strong side, but had problems in recent games especially away.

CU all for tomorrow's Bundesliga (write ups will be up probably tonight)

 

[chriscol]

first winner for weekend is in :2-0 essen

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Good work chris. I'm looking forward to reading your Bundesliga write-ups.

 

[chriscol]

record so far :

Season:
1.Bundesliga: 18-10 +7.729
2. Bundesliga:4-4 +0.86
Regionalliga: 12-7 +3.40

Total: 34-21 +11.989

Saturday

Bundesliga

Bayern München - Leverkusen :Under 3 goals @ 1.901

Bayern now have 9 home wins in a row against Leverkusen, which has a history to shoke in important matches in München. But this time i dont expect a bad showing of Leverkusen. it's early in the season and as a surprise for many (maybe also for themselves) Leverkusen leads the Liga. They simply have nothing to loose here and no real pressure. if they loose they will be still at the top of table and have a solid start in season.
Bayern on the other hand, as i mentioned during week's CL game, will concentrate on CL this year. They struggled recently in Bundesliga, especially in away games. At home they got 2 wins over lowly Frankfurt and Bochum.
it all sound like an obvious side bet on Leverkusen, but Leverkusen so far played very impressive at home, but not away. They got a lucky win at Frankfurt and lost to Bochum. Also history makes it a no play for me on the side.
Total looks much better. i expect München to struggle (like they did against Glasgow for most of the time) to get scoring chances. They will be tired after CL during week (also Oktober-Fest started this weekend) and will not go a very high tempo against dangerous Leverkusen. Bayern had problems on defense recently, but that let me expect an even bigger focus on that part of the team for today's game.
Leverkusen will also not play too offensivly. they will be satisfied with a draw and therefore will strengthen up defense.
I expect a slow game between two top teams going no risk and being both satisfied with a draw (or better: no loss) in this situation.
3 goals is simply too much (at least i dont see 4)

 

[chriscol]

Hannover- Gladbach : Hannover -0.5 @ 1.80 !!2 UNITS!!

Hannover coming froma great 3-2 away win in Berlin after being 0-2 down. They will be very confident going into this match. They played good at home so far, but only received high scoring draws by conceiding last minute goals. today they are facing Gladbach which is already in abig crisis. loosing 3 in a row they are under immense pressure, which i dont expect them to handle well. they had the same pressure against Frankfurt last week at home and lost with a terrible performance.this time they playing away where they are absolutely crap and have "minus" - confidence. They only got one away win last season and did not look better this year so far.
They have also injury problems for this game.
If Hannover plays at least decent defense they will have to much offensive power for gladbach today.

Still thinking about the over, but no official play, yet.

Freiburg- Schalke : Schalke pk @ 2.04

Schalke is not playing well (or at least not as well as they want) at the moment
They struggle to score, but that is mainly a problem in home games, where they have to attack. In away games they can play more defensive minded, which is their strength at the moment. if you take away a blow out loss to Bremen they have a goal diff of 5-4 in 4 games. last week's home draw (0-0) showed also a solid defensive performance.
Freiburg is coming of an away draw at Kaiserslautern. they usually are strong at home, but i see a little let down after showing good results recently. They will have problems to score and find their own game against one of the stronger teams like schalke.

Stuttgart - Dortmund : Dortmund pk, +0.5 @ 1.86
Stuttgart did not conceide a goal so far in 5 games andis therefore in 2nd place with only 5 goals scored. Their good results are mainly produces by solid defense, which makes it hard for me to pass on a 1/4 ball for Dortmund.
Also Stuttgart is coming of a bad loss to Glasgow, a game which they had pretty much in hand and should have won. I'm not sure how the young team handles that first CL- experience.
Dortmund on the other hand comes well rested into this match. they are coming of a big win against Bremen at home and i expect them to play a good season, now they can only concentrate on Buindesliga with being out of CL.
Amoroso will still be out for next weeks, but Conceicao will be back for today's game, which should give Dortmund a boost. He can support Rosnicky in mid-field, which takes the pressure a bit from one single guy and will make Dortmund more difficult to defend for Stuttgart (simply more options).
Only danger with this play is Dortmund's weak away record. They did not win in last 10 games, which is not a good sign for a top team, but i like the chance today for getting at least the draw.

Still thinking of Under here, but no play so far.

BOL to all

[This message was edited by chriscol on September 19, 2003 at 09:11 PM.]

[This message was edited by chriscol on September 19, 2003 at 09:26 PM.]

 

[chriscol]

Not a good day today in Bundesliga, but top play hit, so only a small loss.

SUNDAY

2. Bundesliga

Ahlen - Mainz: Mainz pk @ 1.800

Mainz one of the top contenders for promotion started with 3 home wins and 2 away draws. Team is playing well that early in the season and not afraid to score away (both draws were 2-2). They will go for the win here in Ahlen, a match-up that put some extra revange emotion on for Mainz. Mainz almost sure of promotion get caught on the last day last season, by falling 3-4 to Ahlen, which had nothing to play for in that game. Mainz team is talking about this event the whole week.
Ahlen on the other hand will again play against relegation this year. They had two away wins so far, but their home games were two horrible losses to lowly Karlsruhe and Osnabrück.
Also Ahlen got big injury trouble. 4 defenders including the captain will be out .
Very good chanc efor Mainz to get the away win, but at least the draw.

Leaning on the OVER 2.5 Trier - Unterhaching

Regionalliga Nord:

Schalke (A) - Braunschweig: Braunschweig to win @ 2.0

Braunschweig is the top team in league. they are on a hot streak with 6 wins and one away draw at 2nd place Wuppertal. They are clearly the much better team here.
Schalke coming up from 4th league, got off to a surprizing good start, but fell into a weak sttreak over last games. They lost 2 away games by 1-3 and 1-5 and allowed last place Neumünster to get it's first point in league in a lucky 1-1 home draw.
This team simply is not that good as the early results showed. the last performance were more a sign for performances to come. they will definitely play against relegation this year and i dont expect Braunschweig to make a mistake here.

Regionalliga Süd:

Bayern München (A) to beat Kaiserslautern (A) @ 1.476

München is the dominant leader in this league winning 5 of first 7 games with 2 draws. At home Kaiserslautern, which is around the bottom of the table and winless in last 5 should be no real problem.

[This message was edited by chriscol on September 20, 2003 at 06:56 PM.]